Figures showing fewer Kiwis are able to own homes are fatally flawed, a former government think-tank member claims.
In the week the government unveiled a housing strategy to make it easier to buy a home, Michael Littlewood who 10 years ago served on a savings think-tank for the then National government - says policy is being based on misinformation about a crisis that may not even exist.
Statistics suggest home ownership has dropped from 74% in 1991 to 68% in 2001 (the last figures available), but Littlewood says the numbers may be wildly inaccurate. He says they may overstate the fall in home ownership by up to 7%, and even his fiercest critics say he may have a point.
In the 1991 census, only l% of people said they were neither renting nor owned the home they lived in. In the 2001 census that figure was 8%, and Littlewood says much of that could be covered by people who have shifted their homes into family trusts, and technically no longer own them.
Also the way census data is collected means superannuitants in retirement villages and divorced mums living in - homes on which the ex-husband still pays the mortgage are also likely to fall into the 'other' category, Littlewood says. Even Littlewood critic David Skilling, of the New Zealand Institute, says he may have a point.
The figures were quoted in Building a Future: The New Zealand Housing Strategy issued on Thursday by housing minister Steve Maharey They were used to justify the retention of the Kiwibank In-Reach scheme, which lends 100% of the value of a home to low-income families unable to save, as well as the possible creation of other state-run initiatives.
Also relying on the figures, finance minister Michael Cullen plans to give details of a national workplace-based savings scheme in his May 19 Budget. The scheme will include help for people saving for a deposit on their own home.
The declining home ownership numbers were also used to justify the $4 billion-a-year savings and wealth accumulation policy package suggested by Skilling which aimed at turning Kiwis from a nation of spenders to one of savers and asset-owners.
But while Skilling says Littlewood's claims need checking out, he dismisses his view that talk of a crisis is 'alarmist' and unsupported by the numbers.
Skilling says while the 74% to 68% reported fall may not be strictly accurate, it has been broadly corroborated by Statistics NZ's Household Expenditure Survey, which was also quoted in the housing strategy.
It identified a fall in home ownership from 74% in 1989 to 68% in 2001, and 65% last year. In the Auckland region the fall in recent years has been steeper, from 68% in 2001 to 629'o by last year.
Skilling also pointed out that the falls have had a bigger impact on younger people struggling with student loans, easy consumer debt and higher house prices. On these, the census figures were less equivocal - they showed a 13% drop in home ownership for those under 35.
Skilling says Littlewood has overplayed his hand in claiming there is no crisis, and the housing minister agrees.
In his introduction to the housing strategy, Steve Maharey said: 'Consultation feedback suggests that households in the middle as well as lower income ranges are increasingly experiencing affordability problems.
'With readily available credit, household debt can affect people's ability to get into and stay in adequate housing.'
And the strategy promised: 'The government response to declining levels of home ownership will be expanded through programmes to help people become and remain homeowners.
'The government believes that asset ownership is important to enable people to participate fully in society in that it provides families with greater long-term security, control and independence.'
Need help or
support?
